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Medwave 2020;20(10):e8057 doi: 10.5867/medwave.2020.10.8057
Predicción del fin del confinamiento después del máximo de casos en la primera ola de la pandemia COVID-19 en Chile
Prediction of end of lockdown post-peak of cases in first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile
David San Martín-Roldán, Francisca Rojo-Lazo, Aracelis Calzadilla-Núñez, Pablo San Martín-Roldán, Patricia Díaz-Calzadilla, Víctor P Díaz-Narváez
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Palabras clave: COVID-19, coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, SARS-CoV2, 2019 novel coronavirus, forecasting, quarantine

Abstract

Introduction
The results of mandatory confinement have been detrimental in several respects. Nonetheless, they have resulted in reducing the number of active cases of COVID-19. Chile has begun the de-escalation and needs to know the best time to end the restrictions.

Objective
We discuss the best conditions and guarantees for the end of compulsory confinement.

Methods
This study is based on a trend model with prediction estimation. The data of the variables of interest were subjected to linear regression studies to determine the curve that best explained the data. The coefficient of determination, the standard deviation of y in x, and the confidence interval of the observed curve were estimated. The trend curve was chosen in accordance with the regression estimates.

Outcomes
It was found that all dependent variables tended to decrease over time in a quadratic fashion, except for the new cases variable. In general, the R2 and MAPE estimates are satisfactory, except for the variable number of PCR tests per day.

Conclusions
Gradual and cautious steps should be taken before ending mandatory confinement. In the current de-escalator, daily PCR tests should be increased, maintaining vigilance on indicators of incidence, prevalence, and positivity of PCR tests. Evidence suggests with some degree of confidence that mandatory confinement could be safely lifted as of August 30, 2020. Long-term preparations must be made to contain future waves of new cases.


 

No English version is available for this article.

Licencia Creative Commons Esta obra de Medwave está bajo una licencia Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial 3.0 Unported. Esta licencia permite el uso, distribución y reproducción del artículo en cualquier medio, siempre y cuando se otorgue el crédito correspondiente al autor del artículo y al medio en que se publica, en este caso, Medwave.

 

Introduction
The results of mandatory confinement have been detrimental in several respects. Nonetheless, they have resulted in reducing the number of active cases of COVID-19. Chile has begun the de-escalation and needs to know the best time to end the restrictions.

Objective
We discuss the best conditions and guarantees for the end of compulsory confinement.

Methods
This study is based on a trend model with prediction estimation. The data of the variables of interest were subjected to linear regression studies to determine the curve that best explained the data. The coefficient of determination, the standard deviation of y in x, and the confidence interval of the observed curve were estimated. The trend curve was chosen in accordance with the regression estimates.

Outcomes
It was found that all dependent variables tended to decrease over time in a quadratic fashion, except for the new cases variable. In general, the R2 and MAPE estimates are satisfactory, except for the variable number of PCR tests per day.

Conclusions
Gradual and cautious steps should be taken before ending mandatory confinement. In the current de-escalator, daily PCR tests should be increased, maintaining vigilance on indicators of incidence, prevalence, and positivity of PCR tests. Evidence suggests with some degree of confidence that mandatory confinement could be safely lifted as of August 30, 2020. Long-term preparations must be made to contain future waves of new cases.

Autores: David San Martín-Roldán[1], Francisca Rojo-Lazo[1], Aracelis Calzadilla-Núñez[2], Pablo San Martín-Roldán[3], Patricia Díaz-Calzadilla[2], Víctor P Díaz-Narváez[4]

Filiación:
[1] Escuela de Obstetricia y Puericultura, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
[2] Facultad de Ciencias de la Salud, Universidad Autónoma de Chile, Santiago, Chile
[3] Escuela de Nutrición y Dietética, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Mayor, Santiago, Chile
[4] Facultad de Odontología, Universidad Andres Bello, Santiago, Chile

E-mail: francisca.rojo@uv.cl

Correspondencia a:
[1] Angamos 655,
Reñaca,
Viña del Mar

Citación: San Martín-Roldán D, Rojo-Lazo F, Calzadilla-Núñez A, San Martín-Roldán P, Díaz-Calzadilla P, Díaz-Narváez VP. Prediction of end of lockdown post-peak of cases in first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile. Medwave 2020;20(10):e8057 doi: 10.5867/medwave.2020.10.8057

Fecha de envío: 10/7/2020

Fecha de aceptación: 20/10/2020

Fecha de publicación: 9/11/2020

Origen: No solicitado

Tipo de revisión: Revisión por pares externa, por cinco árbitros a doble ciego

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  3. Basu D, Salvatore M, Ray D, Kleinsasser M, Purkayastha S, Bhattacharyya R, et al. A Comprehensive Public Health Evaluation of Lockdown as a Non-pharmaceutical Intervention on COVID-19 Spread in India: National Trends Masking State Level Variations. medRxiv [Preprint]. 2020 Jun 14:2020.05.25.20113043. | CrossRef | PubMed |
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  7. Dubey S, Biswas P, Ghosh R, Chatterjee S, Dubey MJ, Chatterjee S, et al. Psychosocial impact of COVID-19. Diabetes Metab Syndr. 2020 Sep-Oct;14(5):779-788. | CrossRef | PubMed |
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Rawson T, Brewer T, Veltcheva D, Huntingford C, Bonsall MB. How and When to End the COVID-19 Lockdown: An Optimization Approach. Front Public Health. 2020 Jun 10;8:262. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Adhikari SP, Meng S, Wu YJ, Mao YP, Ye RX, Wang QZ, et al. Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) during the early outbreak period: a scoping review. Infect Dis Poverty. 2020 Mar 17;9(1):29. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Basu D, Salvatore M, Ray D, Kleinsasser M, Purkayastha S, Bhattacharyya R, et al. A Comprehensive Public Health Evaluation of Lockdown as a Non-pharmaceutical Intervention on COVID-19 Spread in India: National Trends Masking State Level Variations. medRxiv [Preprint]. 2020 Jun 14:2020.05.25.20113043. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Ng WL. To lockdown? When to peak? Will there be an end? A macroeconomic analysis on COVID-19 epidemic in the United States. J Macroecon. 2020 Sep;65:103230. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Johns Hopkins University, Center for Systems Science and Engineering. Cases by Country/Region/Sovereignty. COVID-19 Dashboard by the Center for Systems Science and Engineering [CSSE] at Johns Hopkins University. 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Nicola M, Alsafi Z, Sohrabi C, Kerwan A, Al-Jabir A, Iosifidis C, et al. The socio-economic implications of the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19): A review. Int J Surg. 2020 Jun;78:185-193. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Dubey S, Biswas P, Ghosh R, Chatterjee S, Dubey MJ, Chatterjee S, et al. Psychosocial impact of COVID-19. Diabetes Metab Syndr. 2020 Sep-Oct;14(5):779-788. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Ministerio de Ciencia, Tecnología, Conocimiento e Innovación de Chile. Base de Datos COVID-19. 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Díaz-Narváez V, San-Martín-Roldán D, Calzadilla-Núñez A, San-Martín-Roldán P, Parody-Muñoz A, Robledo-Veloso G. Which curve provides the best explanation of the growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile? Rev Lat Am Enfermagem. 2020 Jun 26;28:e3346. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Veloz T, Martínez A, Ravello C, Ropert S, Barrios A, Mora S, et al. Proyección del impacto de la pandemia de Covid-19 en Chile a través del modelo SEÎRHUD georreferenciado. 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Sjödin H, Wilder-Smith A, Osman S, Farooq Z, Rocklöv J. Only strict quarantine measures can curb the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak in Italy, 2020. Euro Surveill. 2020 Apr;25(13):2000280. | CrossRef | PubMed |

University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Our World in Data. Policy Responses to the Coronavirus Pandemic. 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Robert Koch Institute (RKI). COVID-19: Fallzahlen in Deutschland und weltweit. 2020. [On line]. | Link |

National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China. July 6: Daily briefing on novel coronavirus cases in China. 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Centro Nacional de Epidemiología. Situación y evolución de la pandemia de COVID-19 en España. España: Ministerio de Sanidad; 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Santé publique France. L’épidémie de COVID-19 en France. 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Istituto Superiore di Sanità, EpiCentro. Dati della Sorveglianza integrata COVID-19 in Italia. Italia; 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Rijksinstituut voor Volksgezondheid en Milieu. Actuele informatie over het nieuwe coronavirus (COVID-19). Nederlans: Ministerie van Volksgezondheid, Welzijn en Sport; 2020. [On line]. | Link |

UK Government. Official UK Coronavirus Dashboard. United Kingdom; 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Department of Health of Australia. Coronavirus (COVID-19) at a glance infographic collection. 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Social Affairs, Health, Care and Consumer Protection. Official COVID-19 Dashboard – Explanatory Notes. Austria: Federal Ministry; 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Ministry of health and welfare. Cases in Korea. Korea: MOHW; 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Ministry of Health Manatū Hauora. COVID-19 (novel coronavirus). New Zealand; 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Website of the Republic of Poland. Coronavirus: information and recommendations. 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Direção-Geral da Saúde. Disponibilização de Dados. Portugal: Ministério da Saúde; 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Federal Office of Public Health [FOPH]. Coronavirus. Switzerland; 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Ministerio de Salud Pública. Plan Nacional Coronavirus. Uruguay; 2020. [On line]. | Link |

Garg S, Basu S, Rustagi R, Borle A. Primary Health Care Facility Preparedness for Outpatient Service Provision During the COVID-19 Pandemic in India: Cross-Sectional Study. JMIR Public Health Surveill. 2020 Jun 1;6(2):e19927. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Kwok KO, Lai F, Wei WI, Wong SYS, Tang JWT. Herd immunity - estimating the level required to halt the COVID-19 epidemics in affected countries. J Infect. 2020 Jun;80(6):e32-e33. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Li Z, Chen Q, Feng L, Rodewald L, Xia Y, Yu H, et al. Active case finding with case management: the key to tackling the COVID-19 pandemic. Lancet. 2020 Jul 4;396(10243):63-70. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Saez M, Tobias A, Varga D, Barceló MA. Effectiveness of the measures to flatten the epidemic curve of COVID-19. The case of Spain. Sci Total Environ. 2020 Jul 20;727:138761. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Besigye IK, Mulowooza M, Namatovu J. Coronavirus disease-2019 epidemic response in Uganda: The need to strengthen and engage primary healthcare. Afr J Prim Health Care Fam Med. 2020 Jun 4;12(1):e1-e3. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Cobianchi L, Pugliese L, Peloso A, Dal Mas F, Angelos P. To a New Normal: Surgery and COVID-19 During the Transition Phase. Ann Surg. 2020 Aug;272(2):e49-e51. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Wynants L, Van Calster B, Collins GS, Riley RD, Heinze G, Schuit E, et al. Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19 infection: systematic review and critical appraisal. BMJ. 2020 Apr 7;369:m1328. | CrossRef | PubMed |

Gangemi S, Billeci L, Tonacci A. Rich at risk: socio-economic drivers of COVID-19 pandemic spread. Clin Mol Allergy. 2020 Jul 1;18:12. | CrossRef | PubMed |

LoPresti M, Beck DB, Duggal P, Cummings DAT, Solomon BD. The Role of Host Genetic Factors in Coronavirus Susceptibility: Review of Animal and Systematic Review of Human Literature. Am J Hum Genet. 2020 Sep 3;107(3):381-402. | CrossRef | PubMed |